Hockey Stick Growth in Life Sciences: The Dream, the Data, and the Discipline
Why explosive growth in life sciences looks different — and how great investors recognize it before it happens.
Dear Readers,
Welcome to the latest edition of the HealthVC newsletter!
What it really means and how to recognize it before the curve turns.
One of the most overused phrases in venture capital also happens to be one of the most misunderstood. Everyone wants “hockey stick growth,” but few stop to ask what that truly looks like in a science-based business, how to spot it before the inflection point, and what happens after the chart goes vertical.
For generalist investors, the hockey stick often implies clever distribution tactics, viral loops, and aggressive spend-to-scale marketing. In life sciences, the curve is more elusive, often masked by regulatory timelines, clinical trial noise, and the inherently non-linear nature of scientific progress. But make no mistake, when that sharp growth phase does come, it can transform not only the company’s trajectory but the return profile of an entire venture fund.
What Is Hockey Stick Growth, Really?
At its core, hockey stick growth is a curve that begins flat, the “blade,” and then suddenly rises steeply, the “handle.” The flat part often reflects foundational work: research and development, preclinical studies, regulatory preparation, and platform validation. These early phases don’t always offer dramatic revenue or user growth, but they build the bedrock.
The steep rise typically begins with a major de-risking milestone: clinical validation, regulatory approval, payer coverage, or a strategic partnership. In life sciences, that inflection can happen in a single quarter.
Take BioNTech. For over a decade, it was known in investor circles but lacked market momentum. Once mRNA vaccines were validated, their revenue grew from €108 million in 2019 to over €18 billion in 2021. The blade was long and flat. The handle, vertical. This wasn’t random. It was a direct result of years of platform refinement, IP layering, and scientific discipline, all converging at the right moment.
Why It Matters to Investors
When a startup hits that inflection point, it sends a powerful signal. Product-market fit in life sciences is hard-earned, not manufactured. Explosive growth is a form of real-world validation that the science, the model, and the unmet need are all aligned.
For venture capitalists, this moment also signals scalability. It suggests that the company can grow without proportionally increasing its costs, whether through digital distribution in healthtech, volume manufacturing in diagnostics, or global licensing deals in therapeutics.
At the fund level, hockey stick growth can dramatically shift IRR profiles. A startup moving from Series A to IPO within 24 months due to market pull, not just push, can become the dominant driver of returns in a portfolio. LPs notice this. So do future co-investors and acquirers.
What Actually Drives the Spike
Hockey stick curves aren’t magic. They’re engineered through a mix of timing, execution, and systemic forces. In life sciences, here are the common drivers:
1. Platform Validation
Once a platform technology proves efficacy across multiple programs, for example, a CRISPR-based editing system working in both hematology and ophthalmology, it creates investor confidence and internal leverage.
2. Regulatory Catalysts
A single FDA approval can instantly unlock markets, especially if the product targets a rare or previously untreatable condition. This kind of regulatory green light often compresses years of growth into months.
3. Market Pull
When a product solves a painful enough problem, for example, reducing unnecessary biopsies through AI-powered imaging, clinicians and payers pull it in faster than expected.
4. Strategic Alliances
Partnerships with pharma or device giants don’t just validate the science. They unlock distribution channels, credibility, and in many cases, upfront capital that extends runway and fuels growth.
5. Capital Efficiency and COGS Mastery
In diagnostics and digital health, especially, reducing the cost of goods and improving gross margins can be the difference between slow adoption and viral uptake. Growth isn’t just about speed, it’s about profitable scaling.
The Role of Capital Efficiency in Exponential Growth
One overlooked driver of hockey stick growth is capital discipline. Many founders mistake aggressive spending for growth, assuming that dumping money into commercial teams or pilot programs will automatically accelerate traction. In reality, sustainable exponential growth comes from understanding what scales organically and what burns cash without compounding returns.
In our fund, the companies that grew fastest post-inflection were not necessarily the ones that raised the most. They were the ones who understood exactly what levers to pull, how to convert a successful pilot into a multi-year payer contract, or how to go from five hospital clients to fifty through a single procurement channel.
Inside the Company During the Curve
From the outside, hockey stick growth looks like success. Inside, it often feels like chaos. Teams outgrow systems. Quality controls get strained. Leadership often struggles to balance scale with scientific integrity.
Founders in our portfolio who successfully navigated this phase had one thing in common: operational humility. They hired seasoned operators early. They listened to their clinicians and commercial teams. And they knew that every growth phase comes with growing pains, from headcount doubling in six months to manufacturing bottlenecks when demand outpaces supply.
This is where many good companies fail, not for lack of product, but because they weren’t structurally prepared to scale.
How to Spot the Inflection Before It Happens
For a managing partner, the hardest and most rewarding challenge is spotting the inflection before it’s obvious. What does early hockey stick potential look like?
You look for evidence of demand beyond what the startup is chasing. Clinical KOLs are asking for expanded access before full approval. Payer interest before commercial readiness. Inbound M&A conversations despite no banker outreach. These are not vanity metrics. They’re signals of pull, not push.
Conversely, beware of forced growth, aggressive customer incentives, subsidized pilot programs that never convert, or overpromising on timelines that constantly shift. True hockey stick potential grows from product strength, not pitch deck acrobatics.
After the Spike: What Comes Next?
Every curve has a peak. After explosive growth, the best companies don’t coast; they consolidate. This is when the messy work of turning momentum into long-term value begins.
In biotech, this may mean expanding the pipeline. In digital health, it could involve deep integration into provider workflows. In diagnostics, improving throughput and margin structure.
It’s also when competition sharpens. New entrants appear. Larger players wake up. The market you created suddenly gets crowded.
This is where strategic clarity matters. Growth is only an advantage if you know what to do with it.
What the Best VCs Really Watch For
Every VC wants the next unicorn. But the best investors go deeper than the curve.
We ask whether the team can handle scale. Whether the science has more depth than the first indication. Whether the commercial model is truly repeatable. Whether the exit pathway is clear, IPO, M&A, or roll-up.
Above all, we assess durability. In science-based businesses, the question isn’t just how fast you can grow, it’s how long you can stay relevant.
The Myth of Linear Progress in Science-Based Startups
Unlike SaaS or consumer tech, science-based ventures are rarely linear. They move in fits and starts, with long periods of silence punctuated by breakthroughs.
Expecting hockey stick growth in year one is naïve. But ignoring its signals in year four is equally dangerous. Timing matters. So does patience.
As VCs, our job is to discern signal from noise, to see which curves are flattening and which are about to rise.
Final Thought: Don’t Just Chase the Curve — Understand the Physics Behind It
Hockey stick growth isn’t just a pretty chart in a pitch deck. It’s the visible proof of alignment between product, market, and execution.
For investors, it's not about getting lucky. It’s about being early, being right, and being ready to support founders through the volatility that comes with explosive success.
If you’re a founder navigating the blade, stay focused. Your handle may be just around the corner. If you’re an LP, ask your GPs what they’re doing to find inflection before it happens. And if you’re a fellow investor, ask yourself whether you’re chasing momentum or building conviction before the curve turns.
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Until next time, keep venturing forward!